The Eightfold Path

For Thursday, Bardach, Part II  - and by Friday, turn in your last reflections for the course.

You may notice that we are revisiting concepts from earlier in the semester -- a feature, not a bug.

 The Eightfold Path

• Define the Problem
• Deficit and Excess: supply shortages and inflation
• Evaluative:  is gentrification bad?
• "What's the story?" can be a better question to ask people than "What's the problem?"
• Construct a timeline.  Inflation example.
• Pitfall: Beware defining the solution into the problem.  "We have too few roads!"  But is that the problem?  Would more roads be a solution?  VIDEO
• Assemble Some Evidence
• Other governments in the US
• Other countries.
• History:  consider analogies, be careful about similarities and differences.  Bush and pandemic preparedness
• Pitfalls:  relevance to the decision, confirmation bias.
• Construct the Alternatives
• Start comprehensive, end focused
• Consider the level of government making the decision
• Pitfalls:  vague specification of alternatives
• Select the Criteria
• Efficiency:  costs and benefits
• Effectiveness.  Peter Drucker: "Efficiency is doing things right; effectiveness is doing the right things.”
• Equity -- think back to Stone.
• Initial political support
• Sustainability -- i.e., feedback!
• Pitfall: confusing outputs and outcomes.
• Project the Outcomes
• Sensitivity analysis 
• Pitfall:  ignoring uncertainty, the possibility of black swans
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• Confront the Trade-offs
• Tradeoff triangles and polygons
• Pitfalls:  not focusing on the margins; Rosy Scenario
• Decide
• Tell Your Story: SUCCES