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Thursday, November 18, 2021

The Eightfold Path, Continued

By Tuesday, pick the issue for your last paper.  Students will volunteer for brief presentations a week after that.  See Bardach, p. 82 on memo format.

  • Read Bardach, Part III and IV.  Also bring questions about careers in public policy.
========================================
Eightfold path.  Do not be an Underpants Gnome:


  • Confront the Trade-offs
    • Tradeoff triangles and polygons
    • Pitfalls:  not focusing on the margins; Rosy Scenario
  • Decide
  • Tell Your Story: SUCCES
  • BLUF
  • The "Grandma Bessie" or Mom Test
  • Related on political feasibility:  The MAGA-leaning Uncle Test


The President. Okay. I'll give you an example where, according to the polls I have the unpopular position, okay? The Congress passes a repeal of the estate tax, an outright repeal. Now, I can—and I'm going to veto it if it comes to my desk, okay? Now, I can say the following. I can say, "I'm going to veto this because it only helps less than 2 percent of the people and half of the relief goes to one-tenth of one percent of the people, and it's an average $10 million." That is a populist explanation.

I can say, "I'm going to veto it because we only have so much money for tax cuts, and I think it's wrong to do this and say this is our highest priority, when we have done nothing to lower the income taxes of low-income working people with three kids or more or to help people pay for child care or long-term care for their elderly or disabled relatives or to get a tax deduction for college tuition."

Or I could say, "I think there should be estate tax relief." I do, by the way. "I don't care if it does help primarily upper income people. The way so many people have made so much money in the stock markets in the last 8 years, there are a lot of family-owned businesses that people would like to pass down to their family members, that would be burdened by the way the estate tax works, plus which the maximum rate is too high. When it was set, income tax rates were higher, but there was a lot of ways to get out of it. Now the rates are lower, but you have less ways to get out of it. You have to pretty much pay what you owe more." So I could say that.

So it's not fair to totally repeal it. Like even Bill Gates has said, "Why are you going to give me a $40 billion tax break?" And he's going to give away his money, and I applaud him and honor him for it.

So I could make either of those three arguments. It's helpful to me to know what you're thinking. I know what I think is right. I'm not going to change what I think is right. But in order to continue to be effective, you have to believe I'm right. So that's kind of what I use polls for.

Friend and Foe:  "Who's for this?"
  • Supporters
  • Allies:  supporters who will recruit more supporters and neutralize opponents
  • Opponents
What Can Friend and Foe Do?

In Government
Interest Group Community:   REVERSE LOBBYING
  • Statements, testimony, amicus briefs
  • Reports and op-eds
  • Advertising and grassroots mobilization
  • Direct lobbying
  • Political campaign activity
Resources Available to Friends and Foes
  • Debts:  The Favor Bank
  • Power status:  majority/minority
  • Expertise and information
Size and motivation of membership
  • Money
  • Polls
Identifying Friend and Foe


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