Policy Goes to the Movies

Political Influence

The Distinguished Gentleman (1992) on money and politics

Crime

I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang (1932)

Dirty Harry (1971) -- the exclusionary rule

The Sopranos -- a bleak look at HUD

Poverty

The Grapes of Wrath (1940)

Environment

Soylent Green (1973) -- ecology and aging

The Formula (1980) -- Hollywood looks at energy

Smoking

The Insider -- more-or-less true story of tobacco litigation

Mad Men -- very first scene and last scene of most recent season-- the 2000s look at the 1960s

Policy Analysis and Smoking

Laila presentation

"Policy is centrally about classification and differentiation, about how we do and should categorize in a world where categories are not given." -- Stone, p. 382

"By 1918, cigarettes had become identified with the war effort as a symbol of courage and dignity" --Fritschler & Rudder, 13-14.

 Tobacco mutates

"The business schizophrenia toward government regulation..."  p. 23: USDA and Tobacco

Other agencies: FDA, FTC, FCC, Surgeon General
A question to JFK

Q. Mr. President, there is another health problem that seems to be causing growing concern here and abroad and I think this has largely been provoked by a series of independent scientific investigations, which have concluded that cigarette smoking and certain types of cancer and heart disease have a causal connection. I have two questions: do you and your health advisers agree or disagree with these findings, and secondly, what if anything should or can the federal Government do in the circumstances?

THE PRESIDENT. That matter is sensitive enough and the stock market is in sufficient difficulty [laughter] without my giving you an answer which is not based on complete information, which I don't have and, therefore, perhaps we could--I'd be glad to respond to that question in more detail next week.

Advisory Committee on Smoking & Health

Administrative policymaking

• The process
• The Federal Register

Air Midterm

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper.If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications. Explain the meaning and significance of the following items. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

1. Polis model
2. Reactive effects
3. Policy lightning
4. Supplemental poverty measure
5. Federal Register
6. Uniform Crime Reports
7. Moral hazard
8. Coping organization
9. "Internalities"
10. Policy "stress tests"
11. Age-adjusted rates
12. Sensitivity analysis
13. Entrepreneurial politics

II. Short answers. Each reply should take a brief paragraph or two.

1. Describe the difference between "outputs" and "outcomes," with concrete examples.
2. "Defense spending has skyrocketed over the past 25 years!" "Defense spending is consuming far less of our resources than it did 25 years ago!" How could both statements be true?
3. Briefly describe Bardach's "eightfold path."
4. Explain the difference between "equity" and "efficiency."

III. General Essays

1. Stone says: "Policy is centrally about classification and differentiation, about how we do and should categorize in a world where categories are not given."  Explain, using examples from the Maier book.
2. Political scientist Steven Teles writes"America's federal system of government also does its part to add to policy complexity. In a purely federal system, in which governmental functions were clearly differentiated between the national and state governments, federalism would not translate directly into complexity. But that is not American federalism as it is currently practiced."  Explain, with reference to the issues of health care and homeland security.

IV. Bonus questions (one point each) Very briefly identify the following:

Kathleen Blanco

Todd Beamer

Bob Beckwith

Bill Buckridge

Chester Barnard

Obamacare Implementation

At The New York Times, Joseph Nocera quotes my dissertation adviser:

An insurance executive friend says that the systems Obamacare required were an order of magnitude more complex than even the most complicated insurance company systems. That complexity, says Drew Altman, the president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, was necessitated by the many compromises that were required to pass the bill into law. Ted Marmor, a former Yale professor and an expert on entitlement programs, says that it has to coexist within the extraordinarily complicated “patchwork” that is the American health care system.

Marmor was a young special assistant in the old Department of Health, Education and Welfare when Medicare rolled out in 1966 — a rollout that was as smooth as Obamacare’s has been rocky. (“Our biggest worry was getting Southern hospitals to treat black people,” Marmor told me.) Partly that was because Medicare was a relatively straightforward program. But Marmor also believes that it was because the men in charge of the new Medicare program were seasoned pros who knew how to get the job done.

Thus the second reason the Obamacare rollout has been so awful. “They put amateurs in charge,” says Marmor. Obama would have been much better served if, for instance, he had called upon his friend Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive of General Electric, to choose a team of specialists to lead the effort.

Russia's Timeless Addiction to Potemkin Villages

Here's a humorous set of pictures I found while browsing the internet - a set of "renovations" made to a Russian village in preparation for a visit by Putin the Great:

http://m.imgur.com/a/NMauG

This one is my favorite:

Think he fell for it?

Health

David's presentation

Medicare and Medicaid

The Affordable Care Act




Flu:  Key Problems

• High risk populations need vaccines.
• The market for flu vaccines is unstable and unpredictable.
• The FDA relies on companies to provide vaccines, but may not be monitoring those companies sufficiently.
• The federal government is aware of the problems associated with the flu vaccine market, but has no long-term plan for addressing these problems.
• When a vaccine shortage does occur, there has been a lack of federal coordination to act.
• The US needs a more competitive flu vaccine production market.

The legal side

• National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program
• The Bruesewitz Case (oral argument and opinion here)

In Places Like North St. Louis, Gunfire Still Rules the Night

The article does a great job of showing how statistics don’t reflect reality in a critical way.

Golden State Blues

Dan Walters writes at The Sacramento Bee:

California may be recovering from the worst recession since the Great Depression, and its official unemployment rate has dropped by a third, but by another federal measure of employment distress, the state is second only to Nevada.

The alternative number, known as U-6 in economic statistical circles, includes not only unemployment — the percentage of the labor force that's jobless — but "marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers."

In other words, it represents every worker whose aspirations are being thwarted by economic conditions.

By the U-6 measure, California's employment distress rate is 18.3 percent for the 12 months ending June 30, according to a new report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. California's rate is second only to Nevada's 19 percent and four percentage points higher than the national rate of 14.3 percent.

California's U-6 rate is also more than twice as high as the state's 9.1 percent rate calculated by the BLS for 2006, the last year before the housing bubble burst, plunging the state into recession.

North Dakota, which is experiencing an oil boom, has the lowest rate of 6.2 percent. Texas, with whom California is often compared, has a U-6 rate of 11.6 percent.

Kathleen Miles writes (Nov 15) at The Huffington Post:

California has both the most ultra-wealthy individuals and the highest poverty rate of any U.S. state, according to recent reports.

"This chasm is growing day by day, year by year," Larry Gerston, professor of political science at San Jose State University, said to The Huffington Post. "Those at the top in California are just as happy as a clam. Their incomes are going up much faster than anyone else's."

In 2013, the Golden-for-some State was home to the most -- 12,560 -- ultra-wealthy individuals, according to a new report by Wealth-X, a think tank focusing on wealthy people. New York had the second most, with 8,945 ultra-wealthy individuals. Wealth-X defines ultra-wealthy as having a net worth of at least $30 million.

California gained even more ultra-wealthy individuals in 2013 than any other state, adding an additional 1,605 residents. Florida gained the second most, an additional 565 more than in 2012.

But California also has the highest poverty rate in the nation, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. Nearly one in four Californians -- about 24 percent of the overall population -- lives in poverty. Behind California, the District of Columbia and Nevada have the second and third highest poverty rates, according to the analysis. Across the U.S., about 16 percent of Americans live in poverty.

The census analysis considered income, government benefits, taxes and cost of living. The official poverty threshold for a two-adult-two-child family was $23,283 in 2012.Read moCalifornia has both the most ultra-wealthy individuals and the highest poverty rate of any U.S. state, according to recent reports.

"This chasm is growing day by day, year by year," Larry Gerston, professor of political science at San Jose State University, said to The Huffington Post. "Those at the top in California are just as happy as a clam. Their incomes are going up much faster than anyone else's."

In 2013, the Golden-for-some State was home to the most -- 12,560 -- ultra-wealthy individuals, according to a new report by Wealth-X, a think tank focusing on wealthy people. New York had the second most, with 8,945 ultra-wealthy individuals. Wealth-X defines ultra-wealthy as having a net worth of at least $30 million.

California gained even more ultra-wealthy individuals in 2013 than any other state, adding an additional 1,605 residents. Florida gained the second most, an additional 565 more than in 2012.

But California also has the highest poverty rate in the nation, according to an analysis released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. Nearly one in four Californians -- about 24 percent of the overall population -- lives in poverty. Behind California, the District of Columbia and Nevada have the second and third highest poverty rates, according to the analysis. Across the U.S., about 16 percent of Americans live in poverty.

The census analysis considered income, government benefits, taxes and cost of living. The official poverty threshold for a two-adult-two-child family was $23,283 in 2012.re here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2013/11/california-has-nations-second-highest-job-distress-rate.html#storylink=cpy

Housing, Poverty, Labor

• Sam's Presentation.
• Caitlin's Presentation.

Housing

• The latest Census data
• White House infographic
• Is homeownership a public good or a public bad and economic burden?

Poverty and Welfare

From 11/4:

The welfare tradeoff triangle:

What are the appropriate tradeoffs among the three principal goals of welfare—securing adequate benefits for needy children, providing incentives that induce desired behavior in welfare recipients, and keeping public costs within acceptable bounds? These goals are linked in a relationship that David Stockman (President Reagan’s budget director) christened the “iron triangle.” Government cannot change one element of the relationship without affecting the other two.

Supplemental Poverty Measure (see Maier 183)

Views of Redistribution:

Nonmarital births:

Census data on nonmarital births

Labor

• BLS

income and cost of living for determining if you are "rich" or a HENRY

concrete numbers for  factoring cost of living by city. (from Data Game page 172)
also
HENRY (High Earner, Not Yet Rich)




There was also a flare-up of this rich/250k issue back in 2010 when Todd Henderson made the argument and more recently this guy complained:
“Look, I know my salary of $350,000 is high,” he said. “My whole point is that education and housing in New York are now priced for the wealthy, not the garden variety wealthy. I’m not living high on the hog and going to St. Barts. I mean my summer rental is bare bones, it’s not the Hamptons. ”
though there is the other question of how much of the higher cost should simply be viewed as a good to be consumed.

DHMO

Crime

Gabe's presentation on trauma centers

Statistical Overview: UCR v NCVS

Education

Adriana's presentation

Graphs on Educational Attainment
International Comparisons
Spending and outcomes:



The take of the Center for American Progress

Russlyn Ali, Executive Director of Education Trust West:



Weighted Student Formula:

• The finale in Chicago.
• LCFF in California

Stone on Efficiency (post from monday)

Although many people agreed that using average teacher salaries as opposed to actual
teacher salaries hid inequities within a district, many defenders of the WSF system
argued that using actual teacher pay as a criterion would cause principals to be biased
against hiring more experienced teachers in favor of younger, less expensive teachers.
Teachers unions were incensed by this discussion and felt strongly that using actual
salaries would hurt teachers with seniority who had worked long and hard for their level
of compensation. The unions were also concerned about the many layoffs ahead and the
uncertainty that the restructuring would create for all teaching staff in CPS. Lastly, they
were as concerned as everybody else that there simply were not enough funds for all the
schools.


--defining equity chicago public schools

"Researchers found no evidence that additional experience beyond the first few years nor additional education...are significantly related to student outcomes."
--Data Game 104

Another resource

As I was brainstorming what my policy paper should be on, I found a website on local government ordinances. It looks fairly comprehensive (I checked several Georgia towns), and it may be useful to look up similar legislation to your proposal or to see local legislation. It's called Municode.

Policy Analysis and Best Practices

Presentations:

• Style
• Content

Some balanced sources of news and policy analysis:

• Governing
• Government Executive
• Public Administration Review (use library site to access full text)
• California Legislative Analyst's Office
• National Governors Association Center for Best Practices
• Best Practices in Local Government
• Partnership for Public Service
• National Conference of State Legislatures
• GAO reports on best practices

Think about generic vulnerabilities by going back to the things that governments do:

• Taxes
• Regulation
• Subsidies and Grants
• Service Provision
• Agency Budgets
• Information
• Structure Private Rights (see critical view of citizen suits)
• Framework of Economic Activity (see Stigler)
• Provide Education and Consultation
• Financing and Contracting
• Bureaucratic and Political Reforms

A Closer Look at Riverside's GAIN Program

During his analysis on smart practices, Bardach mentions Riverside's GAIN Program and labels it as a successful "high- expectations welfare-to-work program" (111-112). However, Bardach neglected to fully illustrate what this program actually entailed. Riverside GAIN was unique among the programs studied in the larger California GAIN initiative in that it placed much more emphasis on moving participants quickly into the workforce — and much less emphasis on providing basic education — even for those deemed to be in need of basic education. For instance, the program conveyed a strong message to all participants about the importance of employment, and encouraged participants to accept job offers even if they were low paying. Given that recipients of Riverside's GAIN Program were encouraged to aim low in order to attain a job, I found Bardach's use of "high-expectations" to be questionable.

You Heard It Here First

In an article today, Ezra Klein has a graphic showing the health care tradeoff triangle.

CNN reports today on the Obamacare War Room:

Middle of the road analysis on Obamacare

“ 'Medicare for all' isn't perfect, but it does what the ACA can't: Guarantee better healthcare and a simpler system” - David Sirota


http://www.salon.com/2013/10/31/single_payer_health_care_vs_obamacare/

Stories, Tradeoffs, and Evidence

Review:  SUCCESS

A Wall Street Journal op-ed tells a story that could be problematic for the Affordable Care Act.

The welfare tradeoff triangle:

What are the appropriate tradeoffs among the three principal goals of welfare—securing adequate benefits for needy children, providing incentives that induce desired behavior in welfare recipients, and keeping public costs within acceptable bounds? These goals are linked in a relationship that David Stockman (President Reagan’s budget director) christened the “iron triangle.” Government cannot change one element of the relationship without affecting the other two.

A Washington Post story illustrates the health care tradeoff triangle:

Robert Laszewski, an industry consultant, said he thinks the rise in rates was inevitable. The new law, he said, has resulted in an estimated 30 to 50 percent increase in baseline costs for insurers.

“We’ve got increased access for sick people and an increase in the span of benefits, so something’s got to give,” he said.

Getting Information from People and Documents

• Networking and "Subformal Warning Systems"
• Some initial steps
• Locating sources:

	People leading to…	Documents leading to…
People	"To whom else should I talk?"	"How do I find the author?"
Documents	"What else should I read?"	"How do I track this source?"

Implementation and Healthcare.gov

The Washington Post offers an excellent graphic illustrating implementation problems with Heathcare.gov:

Brainstorming

Dilbert takes on brainstorming here and here.

A more-or-less realistic depiction in Apollo 13:

Butt-Legging in NYC

I sense more butt-legging in New York's future. NYC moves closer to tobacco-buying age of 21.