Implementation

For Thursday, Schuck ch. 9.

For next week (after break), Schuck ch. 10.  For next week's reflection, please send me your suggestions for the remainder of the course, both on content and course format.

Finishing policy selection: 

Rights:

• Private right of action and litigation costs.
• Equality costs:  affluent, educated parties and repeat players (Stone 345) have an advantage.

Expanding the number of people with a perceived stake in the program will increase political support.  Examples?  

But program expansion comes with an implementation cost.

Implementation and TMMP

From the government point of view:  the complexity of joint action (pp. 107-108 of Pressman) and multiple decision points.

Exercise:  assume that there are 10 decision points (way low) and a 90% chance of success on each (way high).  What is the chance of final success?

Government from the point of view of the average person:  the classic set of charts on "Understanding Systems That Affect Families"

In 2013, The Washington Post offered an excellent graphic illustrating implementation problems with the Obamacare website, Heathcare.gov:

A related federalism issue:  implementation usually depends on local officials or regional offices, which may have limited resources or different perspectives (Schuck 236)

Local elected officials have a great deal of autonomy.  LA County Sheriff on masks and vaccines.

Locals may adapt in perverse ways.  See this clip from The Wire, which alludes to one we saw on 8/31 -- juking the stats.

Problems of Regulating Behavior

Mr. Hamilton, meet the Sopranos

Federalist 21:

When applied to this object, the saying is as just as it is witty, that, "in political arithmetic, two and two do not always make four .'' If duties are too high, they lessen the consumption; the collection is eluded; and the product to the treasury is not so great as when they are confined within proper and moderate bounds. 

Problems of subsidies (including preferential treatment as well as monetary payment)

Perpetuity:  rent control in NYC.

Recipients would have engaged in the desired behavior anyway (Schuck 258).  Example:  carpool lanes.  Jones 2021:

Many cars utilizing carpool lanes are filled with passengers that would have been carpooling regardless of incentives to do so; think of parents taking their children to school, or families going to the store together. Only 10% of carpools in major cities are “induced” by HOV lanes.

Research 2021

 Watch this clip from The Wire.  It is the best description of research, ever.

The Internet Archive -- if there is a broken link to what you need, this site might help you find it.  (A newsworthy example, the International Chiropractors Association scrubbed this anti-vaccine diatribe from its website: http://www.chiropractic.org/?smd_process_download=1&download_id=3683

Great stuff at Honnold Library -- which students usually overlook! (password required)

• Nexis Uni:  news sources and law journals
• Political science journals
• Dissertation abstracts (search for "California" and "redistricting" in abstracts, and you will see a couple of Rose Institute names)

General Statistics 

• The Census 
• Census voting data
• Historical apportionment map

Public Policy and Finance

• Federal Budget
• Congressional Budget Office
• Congressional Research Service
• Government Accountability Office
• Policy Commons (login required but free)

California and General State Politics

• Public Policy Institute of California -- California surveys and policy analysis
• California bills and laws 
• LAO -- Legislative Analyst's Office -- analysis of CA issues
• NCSL -- National Conference of State Legislatures -- analysis and data on state issues
• Partisan compositon of legislatures
• Open States -- bill information for all state legislatures

Elections, Parties, Campaign Finance

• Precinct-level national map of the 2020 election and 206
• Open Secrets -- Center for Responsive Politics site for federal campaign finance information
• FEC -- Federal Election Commission
• FCC Public Inspection Files (ad buys on broadcast stations)
• US Presidential Election Atlas -- just what the title says, great historical data
• Precinct Map of the 2016 Election -- every precinct in the country
• US Elections Project -- turnout data
• California Elections Data Archive -- local elections in CA
• Join California  -- elections in CA
• California ballot measures -- archive going back to 1911

Public Opinion

• Polling Report -- an aggregation of national poll data
• Gallup -- the best-known US pollster, delivering new numbers daily 
• Pew Research Center
• 2016 exit poll
• 2018 exit poll
• 2020 exit poll

Policy Research, Policy Instruments

One time only -- Tuesday's class will be virtual:

https://cmc-its.zoom.us/j/92228697468

Meeting ID: 922 2869 7468

For Tuesday, read Stone ch. 16, Schuck, ch. 8.

In-person class resumes on Thursday, October 14, when we shall discuss Schuck, ch. 9.

=========================================
One-stop platform for policy reports, briefs, academic studies, and other policy resources: https://policycommons.net/ (You need to set up an account, but it is free.)
 
Researching federal policy:

• Get background from CQ Library .
• CRS reports here and here

Other possible sources include:

• Statements of Administration Policy -- indications of whether POTUS will sign or veto.
• Congress.gov (http://www.congress.gov/) -- official site for bill summary and status
• GovTrack (http://www.govtrack.us/) – unofficial site for congressional information
• ProQuest Congressional (http://congressional.proquest.com/profiles/gis/search/basic/basicsearch ). -- many congressional documents including searchable Congressional Record. If your computer will not accept this URL, go through the library web page (http://library.claremont.edu). Click “databases,” then the letter “P,” then “ProQuest Congressional.”)
• Committee web pages, which usually contain testimony and text of reports. See http://www.house.gov/committees/ or https://www.senate.gov/committees/index.htm
• ProPublica tools and websites at https://projects.propublica.org/represent/

California and General State Politics

• Public Policy Institute of California -- California surveys and policy analysis
• California bills and laws
• LAO -- Legislative Analyst's Office -- analysis of CA issues
• NCSL -- National Conference of State Legislatures -- analysis and data on state issues
• Partisan compositon of legislatures
• Open States -- bill information for all state legislatures

Review from September 9:

Which instrument?  "A policy may be cost-ineffective because it uses the wrong tool" (Schuck, 54).

• Direct bureaucratic administration (public schools)
• Government corporations and GSEs (Postal Service)
• Regulation (admin. rules)
• Insurance (FDIC; FSLIC and RTC)
• Information (websites)
• Taxes and Tax expenditures (mortgage interest)
• Grants and contracts (see the true size of government)
• Loans and loan guarantees (SBA)
• Vouchers
• Private cause of action

Rules in general (Stone 299):  

• Simplicity v. precision
• Flexibility v. stability
• Neutrality v. justice

Not a new problem.  With eerie prescience, James Madison foresaw current problems when he wrote Federalist 62:

It will be of little avail to the people, that the laws are made by men of their own choice, if the laws be so voluminous that they cannot be read, or so incoherent that they cannot be understood; if they be repealed or revised before they are promulgated, or undergo such incessant changes that no man, who knows what the law is to-day, can guess what it will be to-morrow. Law is defined to be a rule of action; but how can that be a rule, which is little known, and less fixed? 

Another effect of public instability is the unreasonable advantage it gives to the sagacious, the enterprising, and the moneyed few over the industrious and uniformed mass of the people. Every new regulation concerning commerce or revenue, or in any way affecting the value of the different species of property, presents a new harvest to those who watch the change, and can trace its consequences; a harvest, reared not by themselves, but by the toils and cares of the great body of their fellow-citizens. This is a state of things in which it may be said with some truth that laws are made for the FEW, not for the MANY.

Problems with Judicial policymaking.  

Knowledge: "At the bottom of the information chain are judges, who typically know little or nothing about the policy considerations, technical concepts, and political values that underlie the legal texts that they review" (Schuck, p. 171)

• Example: Courts and the teen brain.
• Remedy: specialized courts and special masters

Adjudication is focused, piecemeal, and reactive and involves rights.

Instruments of policy affect one another. Special education is a good illustration:

• 1972: The U.S. District Court, District of Columbia rules in Mills v. Board of Education that DC could not exclude disabled children from the public schools. The U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Pennsylvania, in PARC v. Pennsylvania struck down various state laws excluding disabled children from the public schools.
• 1973: The Rehabilitation Act of 1973 bans discrimination in federal programs and services and all other programs or services receiving federal funds. Section 504 says: “No otherwise qualified handicapped individual in the United States, shall, solely by reason of his handicap, be excluded from the participation in, be denied the benefits of, or be subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving federal financial assistance.”
• 1975: With the Mills and PARC cases as a template, The Education of All Handicapped Children Act (PL 94-142) requires free, appropriate public education in the least restrictive setting. This Act later gets a new name: The Individuals With Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). The law s authorizes the federal promise to provide 40 percent of the excess costs of serving students with disabilities, but during the next 36 years, Congress never appropriates more than 20 percent.
• 1977: After a year an a half, Bureau for the Education of the Handicapped issues regulations implementing the law. Meanwhile, Congress holds oversight hearings and passes additional legislation.
• 1977-82: States and local educational agencies issue their own regulations on special education.
• 1982: In the Rowley case (458 U.S. 176 (1982)), the US Supreme Court rules that "free appropriate public education" means only "some educational benefit."
• 2017: In the Endrew F. Case (580 US _ (2017)), SCOTUS rules that school districts must offer children an Individualized Education Program (IEP) that is reasonably calculated to enable each child to make progress appropriate for that child’s circumstances.

Second Assignment, Fall 2021

Choose one:

• Pick any significant domestic legislation that President Biden has signed or is pending before Congress. Applying what you have learned from reading Schuck so far, explain what could go wrong with its implementation.
• Schuck published this book seven years ago. Pick any chapter and write a brief afterword. That is, how have developments since 2014 confirmed or disconfirmed his analysis?  (As an alternative, you may do the same with any chapter of the Stone book.)
• Write on any relevant implementation topic of your choice, subject to my approval.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Instructions

• Document your claims. Do not write from the top of your head.
• Essays should be double-spaced and no more than four pages long. I will not read past the fourth page.
• Cite your sources with endnotes in Chicago/Turabian style. Endnote pages do not count against the page limit.
• Watch your spelling, grammar, diction, and punctuation. Errors will count against you.
• Turn in essays to the class Sakai dropbox by 11:59 PM, MONDAY, OCTOBER 25 [NOTE DATE CHANGE]. I reserve the right to dock late essays one gradepoint for one day’s lateness, a full letter grade after that.

Interest and Decision

 For Thursday, read Stone, ch. 13 and 15.

I welcome ideas and suggestions for the next essay assignment.

Thursday's class will take place as usual.

On Tuesday, October 12, we will do class live (with recording) via Zoom.  We will resume in-person class on Thursday, October 14.

...................................................................

E.E. Schattschneider:  "What happens in politics depends on the way in which people are divided into factions, parties, groups, classes, etc. The outcome of the game of politics depends on which of a multitude of conflicts gains the dominant position."

Revisiting a table from 9/16: A variation of the table on p. 239 of Stone

"Policy issues don't determine the kind of political contests that occur; instead, politics shapes the way policy issues are portrayed and perceived in the first place" (p. 241).

Policy design: broad-based benefits v. narrow benefits

• FDR and Social Security
• Disability policy

"Deserving" or sympathetic recipients

It is about perception, not just objective reality.

• Loss aversion
• Public attention

Politics also shapes the choice of venue:  

                        Federal        State                Local

Legislative            Congress            Legislatures                County/City

                                                        Initiatives                    School boards

Executive            POTUS                Governor                    Mayors/execs

                            Fed agencies        St agencies                  Local agencies/officials

Judicial                SCOTUS                State Courts                 Local courts

Choice of venue depends on:

• Legal jurisdiction
• Political advantage (influence in that box; ability to fly under the radar)

DATA!

For next time: Stone, ch. 10, 11, 12.

Manipulation and Misunderstanding

• Lying with graphs (video)
• Lying with statistics

Mythical numbers:

• More on heroin addicts
• Super Bowl & domestic violence
• Other myths
• Seven times?

When you count something, you find more of it. Stone, p. 198:

The establishment of new record keeping always brings out cases, as if counting exerts some kind of magnetic force on the things being counted. Sometimes this happens because a formal count normalizes a problem thought to be rare, and so can legitimize something people were previously afraid or ashamed to discuss. This phenomenon is thought to explain one reason why reports of rape to police escalated in the 1970s. Once the women's movement made rape a public issue, rape victims were  more likely to report their experiences to the police instead of remaining silent. Moreover, counting enables victims of a stigmatized condition to come forward as group members rather than as lone individuals. Record keeping also provides a channel for reporting. Once an agency publicizes that it is keeping a count, people turn to that agency to report instances.

Hate crimes 

Counting LGTBQ+ and Household Pulse Survey

 

The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act

Children 3 to 21 years old served under Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA), Part B, by type of disability, autism.

A puzzle whose answer I do not know:

1.  Assume an autism prevalence of one in 150 -- a very conservative estimate

2.  Find data on mental hospitals and institutions for the "retarded" here:  United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1975), 84-85. Online: https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/1975/compendia/hist_stats_colonial-1970/hist_stats_colonial-1970p1-chB.pdf

3.  Compare the estimated number of people with autism and total population of mental hospitals and institutions for the "retarded."

            Total Population           Population/150                Total in Institutions

1940    132,164,569                  881,097                     578,222

1950    151,325,798                1,008,839                    705,375

1960    179,323,175                1,195,488                    769,682

1970    203,302,031               1,355,347                    580,956

Assembling evidence

• USA Facts
• USA.gov Stats
• Wolfram Alpha (computational database)
• Data.gov
• Statistical Abstract of US
• Historical Statistics of the US -- 1975 ed.
• Economic Indicators
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Nationmaster (comparative international data)
• Measuring Worth: deflators & relative values
• Symbolab statistics calculator
• Graph calculator

Demographics

• The Census
• Counting the undocumented
• 1940 Census:  actual raw data

Problem Definition and Policy Estimation

 For Thursday, read Stone, ch. 14

Stories

• Good guys/bad guys/
• Dumb guys: blaming the victim
• Horror stories

Metaphors

• Slippery slope
• Nature: tsunami, wave, tide, earthquake, tectonics
• Disease/Epidemic/Infestation
• War/Invasion
• Market/business

Causal stories (p. 208) and COVID

• Mechanical causes:  bureaucratic SOPs
• Accidental causes:  force of nature
• Intentional causes: conspiracy
• Inadvertent causes:  lab leak

Stories and metaphors help determine the gathering and interpretation of data:  watch out for motivated reasoning.

From Mother Jones:

The study, by Yale law professor Dan Kahan and his colleagues, has an ingenious design. At the outset, 1,111 study participants were asked about their political views and also asked a series of questions designed to gauge their "numeracy," that is, their mathematical reasoning ability. Participants were then asked to solve a fairly difficult problem that involved interpreting the results of a (fake) scientific study. But here was the trick: While the fake study data that they were supposed to assess remained the same, sometimes the study was described as measuring the effectiveness of a "new cream for treating skin rashes." But in other cases, the study was described as involving the effectiveness of "a law banning private citizens from carrying concealed handguns in public."

The result? Survey respondents performed wildly differently on what was in essence the same basic problem, simply depending upon whether they had been told that it involved guns or whether they had been told that it involved a new skin cream. What's more, it turns out that highly numerate liberals and conservatives were even more—not less—susceptible to letting politics skew their reasoning than were those with less mathematical ability.

 [/ 203

Aaron Sorkin and company explain:

Last year, the poverty rate went up -- or down.  Take your pick