More on the Eightfold Path

Define the problem

• First internal step: "What's the story" rather than "What's the problem"
• Lay out a timeline, with other relevant political and policy developments

Assemble some evidence

• Using analogies K-U-P/L-D
• Distinguish known from unknown and presumed
• List similarities and differences

Construct the alternatives

• Look for past federal and state legislation
• Brainstorming and Rolestorming  
• JFK and Excomm
• Logic Model Development Guide (Bardach, p. 28)

Select the criteria

South Park explains confusion between alternatives and criteria (Bardach pp. 46-47):

Project the outcomes.  Ask:

• What odds will you give that your presumption proves correct?  What would you bet?
• What fresh facts would cause you to change your presumption?

Confront the tradeoffs

• Tradeoff triangles

Decide!
Tell your story

• The SUCCES Model

Organizations, Politics, and the Eightfold Path

A followup to  Bardach, Appendix C:  James Q. Wilson, Bureaucracy (New York: Basic Books, 1989), ch. 9:

• Outputs:  what employees do on a day-to-day basis.
• Outcomes: how the world changes because of the outputs

	Outputs are visible to managers	are hard for managers to see
Outcomes are easy to measure	production organization (tax system) simple repetitive stable tasks; specialized skills.  Easy to stress measurable outputs & outcomes over hard-to-measure (satisfaction)	craft organization (Forest Service, wartime military) application of general sets of skills to unique tasks, but with stable, similar outcomes. Relies heavily on ethos and sense of duty of workers.
are hard to measure	procedural organizations (OSHA, peacetime military) specialized skills; stable tasks, but unique outcomes. SOPs are especially important	coping organization (colleges, police departments) application of generic skills to unique tasks, but outcomes cannot be evaluated in absence of alternatives.  "

Policy Windows

• Predictable (State of the Union, State of the State)
• Unpredictable (Policy Lightning)
• Closing windows:  issue-attention cycle and end-dates

Friend and Foe

• Supporters
• Allies:  supporters who will recruit more supporters and neutralize opponents
• Opponents

What Can Friend and Foe Do?

• In Government
• Votes
• Cosponsorships
• Hearings and reports
• Interest Group Community
• Statements, testimony, amicus briefs
• Reports and op-eds
• Advertising and grassroots mobilization
• Direct lobbying
• Political campaign activity

Resources Available to Friends and Foes

• Debts:  The Favor Bank
• Power status:  majority/minority
• Expertise and information
• Size and motivation of membership
• Money
• Polls

Identifying Friend and Foe

• Policy History
• Current statements and comments
• Cosponsorships
• Polls

The Eightfold Path

1. Define the problem
2. Assemble some evidence
3. Construct the alternatives
4. Select the criteria
5. Project the outcomes
6. Confront the trade-offs
7.  Decide!
8. Tell your story 

Sebelius on Implementation

A Problem with Political SurveysThat Look at Voter Knowledge

I have read numerous articles recently that have shown how low the average citizens' knowledge of government is (i.e., only 50% of citizens can name all 3 branches of government...). For my thesis on the initiative process, I uncovered an article arguing that these statistics are often inflated, and make the average citizen look bad, because: 1) the surveys do not offer incentives for getting the correct answer (while voting arguably does), and 2) surveys often leave little time for contemplation, research, etc., (unlike voting). By accounting for these two elements (through a monetary incentive and more time), those who did the survey answer in much higher percentages (increases ranging from 11-40%).

Check it out if this topic interests you. Just another example of statistics that are often misleading or wrong.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lupia/Papers/Prior_Lupia_AJPS_2008.pdf

Sources on Best Practices

• National Governors Association Center for Best Practices
• Best Practices in Local Government
• Partnership for Public Service
• National Conference of State Legislatures
• GAO reports on best practices

Data Questions in the News

On your first paper, several of you wrote about college sexual-assault data.  You scooped this US News article (on the AEI website).

In a few weeks, we shall look at chapter 8 of Maier and Imazeki, which considers the "poverty line" that economist Mollie Orshansky devised 50 years ago.  At The Los Angeles Times, John Schwarz writes:

An honest poverty line would clarify how many Americans are poor and yet ineligible for assistance that would allow them to afford the very basics that the assistance programs were intended to provide. It would show that a far higher proportion of the poor than politicians or the public are aware of are hard workers; many millions of them are already in year-round full-time jobs. And perhaps most important, the large numbers of the poor, now and in relation to the past, would help us understand the serious harm inflicted on demand in the economy, which in turn limits business and contributes significantly to the economy's sluggish growth.

Both for the sake of simple justice and to stop fooling ourselves, and causing great harm to the economy, we should celebrate the 50th anniversary of Mollie Orshansky's calculation by doing it right in 2013.

Now What Do We Do?

Things Governments Do:

• Taxes
• Regulation
• Subsidies and Grants
• Service Provision
• Agency Budgets
• Information
• Structure Private Rights (see critical view of citizen suits)
• Framework of Economic Activity (see Stigler)
• Provide Education and Consultation
• Financing and Contracting
• Bureaucratic and Political Reforms