The End

Exam Format

Data on abortion

Opinion on Abortion:

Gay rights

• Estimates of the gay population
• Support for same-sex marriage
• Generational differences

The blood donation issue:

• FDA statement
• Red Cross statement

Rick Perry Wages a Culture War Against Obama

In a new ad appealing to Christian Conservatives in Iowa, Rick Perry accuses Obama of waging a "War on Religion." As proof, Perry refers to two very sensitive issues within the sphere of American culture wars, homosexuals in the military and school prayer. Full text for the ad is below:

I’m not ashamed to admit that I’m a Christian, but you don’t need to be in the pew every Sunday to know there’s something wrong in this country when gays can serve openly in the military but our kids can’t openly celebrate Christmas or pray in school.

As president, I’ll end Obama’s war on religion. And I’ll fight against liberal attacks on our religious heritage.

Faith made America strong. It can make her strong again.

I’m Rick Perry and I approve this message.

Practice Final

In preparing for the final exam, consider both the air midterm and the following practice exam. The questions on the final will be similar in form and content, though not identical.

I. Identifications. This section will ask you to write a brief paragraph explaining the meaning and significance of 12 out of 14 items from readings and class discussions (4 points each). Examples:

• Budget Control Act of 2011
• Environmental impact statements
• ESEA
• Negative income tax
• Medicaid
• Tax brackets
• "Information Infarction"
• Legislative history
• David Kessler
• The "Twenty Dollar Test"
• Government by network
• Generic vulnerabilities

II. Short answers. In this section, you will answer 2 out of 3 question on factual or analytical points from course material (6 points each). Each answer should take no more than half a page. Examples:

• How does "broken windows" policing work?
• Briefly explain the argument for and against the FDA’s policy on blood donations from the MSM population.
• Explain at least one unanticipated consequence of policies to encourage alternative energy sources.

III. General Essays. In this section, answer 2 of 3 questions. Each answer should take 2-3 large bluebook pages or 3-4 small bluebook pages. Each is worth 20 points each.

• Fritschler and Rudder write: "In policy space [meaning] all current policies contained in one space bumping up against one another, a change in one policy increasingly impinges on many other policies, again requiring adjustments in those policies." Explain. Why does this "bumping" happen? How does it affect the process of decisionmaking? Give a specific example.
• Evaluate Rick Perry's budget plan: http://www.rickperry.org/issues/fiscal-responsibility/ (Just the summary page, not the detailed statement). What tradeoffs does it involve? What obstacles would confront the plan in Congress? If he won passage of the whole plan, would it work?
• Is Occupy Wall Street part of an issue-attention cycle? If so, why? What is the "issue" in question? If not, why not? How does the issue differ from those that go through the cycle?

IV. Bonus questions (one point each) Very briefly identify the following:

• Peter Orszag
• Amy Klobuchar
• Bill Frist
• Alexis Orton
• J. Peter Grace

Occupy Wall Street and the Culture War

This is an interesting article from Forbes looking at the connection between Occupy Wall Street and the culture war. The article bridges the concepts of class warfare and culture war to suggest that the Occupy movement is simply the latest iteration of America's culture War. The author also focuses on the increased attention brought to the criminal justice sector and need for reform in the crackdowns on protesters.
Check out the link here

Politico's Public Policy Report Card

This article describes the best policy innovations as nominated by various policymakers (including Elaine Kamarck!). It's a long article, but definitely worth the read. The breadth of careers for the various pieces of legislation was extremely interesting; nominees ranged from Congressional representatives to a Cabinet Secretary (DOE Duncan) to leaders in state policy. Over the course of the semester, we've examined the different approaches to policymaking and this article definitely supports the claim that people can make policy from many different levels.

My favorite nomination? The Cloud First policy, described on page 3. This IT legislation focuses on web-based services (for a somewhat less technical description, see here). The policy focuses on "the chance for government to do more with less." Specifically, the nomination describes many of the drawbacks we have discussed in class including a short analysis of implementation problems.

Culture Wars

American exceptionalism on the wane?

Comparative data on religious belief

Prayer in school

Evolution -- and comparative data

Data on abortion

Opinion on Abortion:

Pay for Success: Outcome-focused financing

Originating in the U.K., social-impact bonds encourage private investors and philanthropic foundations to fund privately managed social programs in areas such as health care and prisoner recidivism. If the programs succeed in reaching previously set targets—and social outcomes improve—investors receive so-called success payments from the government. If the programs don't work, the government pays nothing. In these scenarios, investors take on all the risk and the government pays only for programs that work.

- The Wall Street Journal

Chart from UK's Social Finance

"An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure" -Ben Franklin

OMB factsheet on "Paying for Success" and POTUS FY 2012 proposal's $100 million for pilot

CAP report "Social Impact Bonds: A promising new financing model to accelerate social innovation and improve government performance"

One Service, UK's first social impact bond in action

Social Finance's report "Bringing Social Impact Bonds to Massachusetts"

What SIBs could benefit in the US:

• National Guard Youth Challenge (through DOD, applies military discipline to provide skills training to at-risk youth)
• Permanent housing for chronically homeless individuals
• Home and community based aging programs for elderly
• Community-based alternatives to juvenile and adult offenders
• Increase kindergarten readiness among low-income children
• Increase college completion rates
• Raise the future earnings of laid-off workers
• Reduce hospital readmissions among patients with chronic illness
• Transition services for youth with disabilities (decreasing future need for Supplemental Security Income assistance)
• Job-training programs (increase participant earnings, so government gets additional tax revenue and spends less on welfare)
• Financial aid for students at for-profit colleges

Newt Gingrich "Profile" from 1984

As we discussed in class, Newt Gingrich has been a notable and controversial figure in American politics for quite some time. A Mother Jones piece from 1984 illustrates this well, taking some liberty with the facts and making a number of serious (and largely uncorroborated) personal allegations, but providing a fascinating characterization of the GOP presidential candidate nonetheless. The intersection of politics and policy is most evident in the way that many of Gingrich's policy positions have shifted since the 1980s to accommodate cultural and ideological shifts in the country and his party. While his support environmentalism and socially conservative policies reflected his "activist conservatism" ideology of the 1980s, he has since downplayed many of these positions.

Crime

Background



The rest of the story...

Politics, Energy, and the Environment play out in the Public Policy Process in New York

A recent article in the New York Times looks at the debate over allowing a controversial form of natural gas extraction in New York. In reviewing public records, the newspaper found that companies that drill for natural gas have spent over $3.2 million lobbying the state government. Environmental groups are launching grassroots efforts such as delivering water-powered clocks to the governor's Capitol office. The process at the center of the debate is called hydrofracking in which water mixed with sand and chemicals is injected into the ground to break up rock formations and release natural gas. The environmental concern is a tainted water supply and damage to the local ecosystem. Natural gas advocates argue this process could lead to job creation and cheaper fuel. It will interesting to see where the young Democratic Governor Cuomo decides to put his support as he is both pro-job creation and environment.
Check out the full article here

Minors' Use of Tanning Beds

Pictured: Child TV star, Stewie Griffin, after irresponsibly using an indoor tanning bed.

State Laws

• California SB 746
• 31 other states regulate minors' use of tanning beds

Carcinogenic

• Class 1 carcinogen (see Ultraviolet-emitting tanning devices)
• 75 percent higher risk for melanoma, the most deadly form of skin cancer

Prevalence

• 2.3 million teen users of tanning beds
• 70,000 people diagnosed with melanoma this year
• 1 out of 8 will die from it or 1 person per hour

Risky Behavior of Teens

• "Tan is beautiful" attitude
• 58 percent reported to use irresponsibly and burn
• Exposure at a younger age is more harmful

Stewie living the "tan lifestyle," Brian is not pleased with his risky behavior.

FDA Consumer Update

Harlem Children's Zone Presentation

National Outlook

• On average, African-American and Hispanic students score lower in math and reading tests than their grade average
  
• This achievement gap has adverse social consequences

What is the HCZ

• System of free charter schools as well as community and family support services that aim to break the cycle of generational poverty in its 97 block Harlem Zone

How Does it Work

• Support from birth through college
• After school programs
• Community support
  
• Health and Nutritional Services
• Less restrictions and bureaucracies

Wider Application

• In 2010, 21 communities received grants from the Obama administration to create neighborhood networks following the HCZ model

Potential Critics to Increased National Implementation

• Conservatives and Unions

Impediments to National Success

• Cost and Funding
  

Paying Students to Stay in School

This Time Magazine article is about a year old, but I thought it fit well into our discussion of education policy. It's about whether schools should pay students to stay in school, get high standardized test scores, or not start fights. The article mainly describes an experiment done by a Harvard professor that payed students in low-performing schools and compared their progress to students who were not paid. The results were inconclusive. Students in one of the four cities showed absolutely no extra progress when paid. However in another city, students who were paid scored better than their classmates on end of the year standardized tests. "Statistically speaking, it was as if those kids had spent three extra months in school, compared with their peers who did not get paid."

Even though the results were not very exciting, I thought this was a really creative way to deal with high dropout rates. The article also mentions unanticipated consequences of this policy, such "cheapening learning" and cultivating a generation of adults who have no self-motivation.

Energy and the Environment

Summary data from EPA

(The six“criteria” pollutants: ground-level ozone, particle pollution (PM2.5 and PM10), lead, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide (SO2).)

Opinion on the environment and energy

Unanticipated consequences: wind farms and dead birds.

Education Reform

School Breakfast Programs

Demonstrated Need

30 million children in NSLP

10 million in NSBP

1/4th children food insecure

Education Success

Academic Performance

Cognitive Development

Threats+Shortages

Costs to Cuts

BackPack Program

Ineligibility

Next Steps

Increase Funding

Increase Buy-In

For more sources, explanations, and research email lepstein14@cmc.edu.

Policy Goes to Hollywood

I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang (1932) and Riot in Cell Block 11 (1954)

The Grapes of Wrath (1940)

Mad Men -- the 2000s look at the 1960s

Soylent Green (1973) -- ecology and aging

The Formula (1980) -- Hollywood looks at energy

The Distinguished Gentleman (1992) on money and politics

As Good as It Gets (1997) on health care

The Sopranos -- a bleak look at HUD

AISD Reach

From Patricia:

AISD Reach, the Austin Independent School District's strategic compensation initiative to support and reward teachers based on classroom success, is a forward-thinking effort developed and designed to advance the District's efforts to recruit and retain the very best teachers and principals for Austin's schools.

By using a creative and innovative approach to support and reward success in the classroom, AISD REACH is working to ensure...

• A quality teacher in every classroom, especially in Austin's Highest-Needs Schools
• Improved student learning at all schools and for all students
• Professional growth for teachers
• Increased retention rates among AISD teachers and principals

Waiting for Superman: Follow-Up

The clip that we watched of Waiting for Superman yesterday focused primarily on the difficulty of educational reform due to the inability to fire unionized, tenured teachers. The case study we read described this problem as well.

Charter schools present a new way to tackle education reform in large part because principals can fire teachers and charter boards can close down schools that do not function well. According to Waiting for Superman, charter schools should be doing significantly better than public schools for this reason. Nevertheless, this has not been the case.

This article describes the oversimplification of Waiting for Superman. (The links in the article especially illustrate the point.) Though the ability to fire under-performing teachers seems like a fantastic solution, it alone will not create meaningful change in schools. Charter schools do not perform significantly better than public schools, so changing the structure of teachers unions is one of those "too good/simple/easy to be true" solutions.

As we discussed in class, education reform needs a multi-pronged approach, and prospects can be bleak. Blaming the problem on teachers unions fails to address the deep-seeded problems in our public education systems.

Education Policy

Values

• Cost
• Equity/performance: math, reading, SAT
• Local and parental control

Race to the Top Models

• The transformation model requires replacement of the school principal, strengthening of staffing, implementation of a research-based instructional program and new governance and flexibility, and extended learning time for students.
• The turnaround model requires replacement of the school principal, a rehire of no more than 50 percent of the school staff, implementation of a research-basedinstructional program and new governance structure, and extended learning time for students.
• The restart model requires the school to be converted or closed and reopened under the management of an effective charter operator or education management organization.
• The school closure model requires the school to be closed and students be enrolled in higher-performing schools in the district.

Central Falls: The Rest of the Story

California public opinion on pay and evaluation

Agency Rulemaking and an Effective Nudge

On Monday, November 14, the US Department of Transportation issued its first fine for tarmac delays based on a rule adopted in April 2010. The rule requires airline companies to allow passehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifngers to get off planes if it is grounded for more than three hours. Originally, the rule only applied to domestic flights. The maximum fine for ignoring this rule is $27,500 for each passenger stranded. Last May, American Airlines kept 608 passengers stranded on 15 different planes for more than three hours. The USDOT fined American Airlines $900,000.

The USDOT proposed the rule after a number of passengers complained about being stuck on planes for hours without food, water or working bathrooms. Between April 2009 and April 2010, 693 delays lasted longer than three hours and 105 of them lasted over four hours.

Airlines fought the rule arguing it would increase the number of cancelled flights. The argument is airlines will avoid the fine by just cancelling a flight ihttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.giff delays are expected to last more than three hours. The Government Accountability Office supported the industry’s assertion with their own report.

The DOT rule has been very effective. A year after the USDOT implemented the rule, there were only 20 instances of flight delays lasting three or more hours. The rule was so effective that the USDOT expanded it to include international flights.

A $27,500 fee per passenger may be more of a shove than a nudge, but it certainly got the airline industry’s attention.

Full article here.

Health and Welfare: Problems and Programs

Poverty Rate

2010 data:

Non-Hispanic White...9.4%
Asian.........................12.5%
Hispanic.....................25.3%
Black..........................25.8%

Nonmarital Births


Life Expectancy:

The Uninsured

Detailed breakdown of mandatory spending


Latest opinion on health law.

Tradeoffs


Health:   Cost-Access-Quality
Welfare: Cost--Adequacy-Work Incntive

Health and Welfare: A Partial Timeline

Aug. 14, 1935: FDR signs the Social Security Act. In addition to benefits for the elderly, the Act establishes key social-welfare programs including:

• Unemployment insurance;
• Aid to the blind and "crippled children;"
• Aid to Dependent Children (later AFDC, aka "welfare");
• Public health.

Aug. 10, 1939: The Social Security Act Amendments of 1939 broadens the program to include benefits for dependents and survivors.

Jan. 31, 1940: Ida May Fuller becomes the first person to receive an old-age monthly benefit check.

Nov. 19, 1945: In a special message to Congress, President Harry Truman proposes a comprehensive, prepaid medical insurance plan for all people through the Social Security system.

Aug. 1, 1956: Congress amends the Social Security Act to provide monthly benefits to permanently and totally disabled workers ages 50 to 64 and for adult children of deceased or retired workers, if disabled before age 18.

June 20, 1960: In Flemming v. Nestor, the Supreme Court rules that individuals have no contractual right to Social Security benefits.

June 30, 1961: JFK signs the Social Security Amendments of 1961, permitting all workers to elect reduced retirement at age 62.

July 1963: Mollie Orshansky publishes the first version of poverty thresholds, which would become the "poverty line."

July 30, 1965: President Lyndon B. Johnson signs the Social Security Act Amendments of 1965 in the presence of Truman. The law establishes both Medicare and Medicaid.

August 8, 1969: Richard Nixon proposes the Family Assistance Plan, to provide needy families with an income floor. The measure eventually dies.

July 1, 1972: Nixon signs into law P.L. 92-336, which authorizes a 20 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) effective September 1972 and establishes the procedures for issuing automatic annual COLAs beginning in 1975.

Jan. 1, 1974: The SSI program goes into operation as a result of the Social Security Amendments of 1972.

March 9, 1977: HEW reorganization plan is published in the Federal Register, creating the Health Care Financing Administration to manage the Medicare and Medicaid programs.

June 9, 1980: President Jimmy Carter signs the Social Security Amendments of 1980. Major provisions involve greater work incentives for disabled Social Security and SSI beneficiaries.

Aug. 13, 1981: The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 makes major changes in Social Security, SSI and AFDC. These include a phasing out of students' benefits, stopping young parents' benefits when a child reaches 16, limiting the lump-sum death payment and changes in the minimum benefit.

April 20, 1983: President Ronald Reagan signs into law the Social Security Amendments of 1983. The bill raises taxes and gradually increases the retirement age.

June 6, 1986: Reagan signs the Federal Employees' Retirement System (FERS) Act, which establishes Social Security coverage for federal employees hired after Dec. 31, 1983.

July 1, 1988: Reagan signs the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act--the biggest expansion of Medicare since its introduction in 1965.

August 18, 1989: A group of senior citizens, with the guidance of community organizer Jan Schakowsky, attacks Rep. Dan Rostenkowski to protest the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act.

December 12, 1989: President George H.W. Bush signs legislation repealing the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act.

Feb. 20, 1990: The Supreme Court holds in Sullivan vs. Zebley that substantial parts of the SSI regulation on determining disability for children are inconsistent with the Social Security Act.

September 22, 1993: Bill Clinton proposes comprehensive health care reform. The bill dies the following year.

August 22, 1996: Clinton today signs a sweeping welfare reform bill that ends the open-ended guarantee of federal aid and shifts much of the responsibility for public assistance to the states.

March 31, 1995: SSA becomes an independent agency.

Oct. 1, 1999: SSA begins its annual mailing of Social Security statements to all workers age 25 and over.

December 8, 2003: President George W. Bush signs the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003.

Health Care Training

FROM DANIEL:

The Washington Post reported the Obama administration’s pledge to fund training for health care professionals across the country. Citing a projected doctor shortage of over 130,000 by 2025, Obama’s team announced a $1 billion stimulus program for the health care sector.

The article noted:

The need for a larger health-care workforce will probably become particularly acute in 2014, when the health-care overhaul is expected to expand health insurance coverage to millions of Americans. By 2019, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects, 32 million more Americans will have gained health insurance coverage.

The new program, however, stirs controversy. In addition to opposition from Conservatives demanding budget cuts, as Peters notes in Chapter 11, “the regulation of quality is one of the most controversial areas of government intervention in the health care field.” (284) Most of the public believes that only physicians can train and judge other medical professionals. While the Obama plan issues grants to such physicians in order to train the next generation of health care professionals, the federal government clearly expands its regulation of health care by determining which firms and organizations receive new or increased funding. The Obama plan furthers federal regulation of health care, which Peters says can add fuel to an already-raging partisan dispute over health care.

I worked on an article for the Rose Institute this year covering the progress of a new Medical School at UC Riverside. Some interesting facts I learned in the process: 40% of physicians practice in the city they are trained; primary care physicians that move into high need areas create 23 new jobs; California pledged $15 million per year to the school’s construction, but such funding has been cut altogether.

The Riverside case highlights the impact Obama’s plan can have on unemployment and how important the specifics of the plan will be. If training dollars go mostly to primary care, and Obama can implement significant training programs within a year, he can significantly reduce the unemployment rate before the 2012 election.

Primary Care by Market

This Washington Post article explains efforts in the state of Maryland to create a more cost-effective primary care system. The new system gives primary care practices financial incentives to cut their patients' total health care costs. Doctors and staff may do this by following up with a patient after appointments to ensure that he is taking medication correctly or to keep track of the emotional well being of patients with chronic illnesses. The state hopes that following up with patients will decrease trips to the hospital or emergency room and promote overall healthier lifestyles. As a financial incentive, doctors' offices will receive 50% of total patient savings. The state Medicaid program and five major insurance companies have also given $6 million to support to practices that create teams of doctors and nurses to coordinate all aspects of the primary care process, making it simpler for patients. The money is meant to help practices hire and train additional staff. These incentives are in addition to the payments that doctors already receive from patients' insurance companies. One doctor explained that coordinating various aspects of the primary care process takes a lot of effort and has never been done before because doctors have never been paid to do it. He is willing to do the extra work now that there is a financial incentive.

In the past, insurance companies have tried to take similar steps, such as calling patients to urge them to take their prescribed medication. These efforts were less successful, the article explains, because patients do not feel the same sense of trust towards their insurance companies as they do to their doctors. By coordinating all aspects of the primary care process and following up with patients, the state of Maryland believes it can make patients feel like they are being taken care of. The state hopes that this will nudge patients to live healthier lifestyles overall.

A Critique of Nudges

On Saturday, Slate.com posted a critique of Sunstein and Thaler’s nudge policy. Not only do libertarians complain that “a nudge is like a shove” in disguise, but the article argues that nudges may not even work. The article’s author claims that nudges are not the free lunch Sunstein and Thaler hoped for, at least with respect to opt-out systems:

“Thaler and Sunstein’s claims about the benefits of opt-out schemes are belied by little evidence it increase donations. According to Kieran Healy, a sociologist at Duke University, differences in donation rates are better explained by differences in organizational effectiveness than differences in opt-in/opt-out. It is not clear that opt-out would increase donations; unsexy but crucial reforms to regional schemes would almost certainly work better.”

The article does have a glimmer of hope for public policy, however. It mentions political scientist Suzanne Mettler at Cornell, who argues that “ordinary people can understand complicated policy questions and reach considered conclusions, as long as they get enough information.” If people can understand and form opinions on complicated questions, are nudges selling the American people short?

On the other hand, the article fails to answer the question of whether people want to think about complex policy questions. In cases where the issues are uninteresting, are nudges still the best policy?

How to Survive a Housing Crisis

Strong Growth, Smart Regulations

2000-2010
From USA Today
-Texas GDP grows 26.8 percent, reaching $1.207 trillion
-Texas passes New York; now 2nd largest state economy

2006-Fall 2009
From Dallas Fed
-Home values fell 10.3 percent nationwide, but grew 4.6 percent in Texas

October 2011:
From RealtyTrac
-CA Foreclosures: 55,000
-TX Foreclosures: 9,800

Home Equity Loans deepened the housing crisis but the Texas Homestead Act insulated Texan homeowners

A Walk in the Park, and I Think "Policy Evaluation!"

Sin Tax? Not Quite

ABC News reports on a proposed "tax" on Christmas trees:

This report says that the tax is on hold, but Heritage Foundation spins the story so it sounds like it's going into effect right away. Unsurprisingly, Heritage isn't supportive: "Just because the Obama Administration has the legal power to impose its Christmas Tree Tax doesn’t mean it should do so."

Talking Points Memo tells another side of the story. Concerned about the popularity of artificial Christmas trees, tree farmers began looking into creating a promotional program similar to the "Got Milk?" campaign before President Obama took office. TPM reports:

“This program was requested by the industry in 2009 and has gone through two industrywide comment periods during which 565 comments were submitted from interested parties,” the National Christmas Tree Association said in a statement, adding that nearly 90 percent of the state and multi-state associations who commented on the program supported it.

“The program is designed to benefit the industry and will be funded by the growers at a rate of 15 cents per tree sold,” the release states. “The program is not expected to have any impact on the final price consumers pay for their Christmas tree.”

Premium Reduction Incentives for calPERS

Fiscal Policy and Taxes

CBO Update

Statutory spending controls

Goals of Tax Policy

• Simplicity
• Horizontal and vertical equity
• Revenue collection
• Behavioral influence

Realities of Tax Policy

• Revenues by source (go to p. 91)
• Tax Brackets
• IRS Forms

Tax reform: The Perry Plan

Supercommittee

The supercommittee's recommendations will play a large role in the future of America's debt. Yesterday, the Washington Post released an article about Kerry's thoughts on the supercommittee. In response to claims that the Republicans are considering tax increases, Kerry stated, "'I would not characterize it as substantial yet, but it’s a change.'" Kerrys' comments remind us that when examining policy we must consider the practical implications not just the theory behind it. Yes, Republicans may be considering tax increases, but these increases may or may not actually lower our deficit: "Republicans offered a plan that for the first time would have included higher tax revenue but also would have extended the Bush-era tax cuts past 2012." The CBO analysis that we read for class today hinges upon the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts, so once the supercommittee releases its recommendations, we must remember to look at the overall impact of the changes, not just ideological changes like some increased taxes or some loopholes closed.

Early Education by Network

A NY Times Article describes a recent trip by President Obama to a school in Pennsylvania in which he announced higher standards for financing for Head Start, a program that offers preschool training for children from low-income families. Obama declared that if Head Start was not meeting its performance objectives, grant money would go to other preschool education networks that were: "If a program isn’t giving children the support they need to be ready for school, then other organizations will be able to compete for the grant. We will take money from programs that don’t work and put it into programs that do.” This stance is consistent with Kamarck's description of Government by Network in which the federal government offers competitive grants to whichever organization best meets the government's criteria. This article, however, failed to mention what criteria the Obama administration would use nor did it assess whether the criteria is appropriate.

The Yawning Gap Between Outputs and Outcomes

The report linked below from Bloomberg Businessweek illustrates one of the fundamental difficulties in policymaking--achieving desired outcomes even when all desired outputs have been met. According to the report, efforts to ban sodas from schools have been effective in achieving the desired output of there being fewer sugary beverages available to students during school hours; however, the policy has not made any progress towards achieving its desired outcome of reduced soft drink consumption, as kids have been able to drink other sugary beverages like energy drinks as a replacement, or go off-campus to find the sodas that they want.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-07/banning-sugary-soda-from-schools-fails-to-cut-teen-consumption.html

Judge Blocks New Warnings

A nice illustration of the judiciary's role in the tobacco issue comes from this AP report:

A judge on Monday blocked a federal requirement that would have begun forcing tobacco companies next year to put graphic images including dead and diseased smokers on their cigarette packages.

U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled that it's likely the cigarette makers will succeed in a lawsuit to block the new standard. He stopped the requirement until after the lawsuit is resolved, which could take years.

A similar case brought by the tobacco companies against the labels is pending before the U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati. U.S. District Judge Joseph McKinley upheld most of the marketing restrictions in the law in January 2010. The appeals court heard arguments in the case in July but is not expected to rule for several months.

Judge Leon's opinion is here.

GDP and 2012

Today we discussed how the economy impacts President Obama's reelection prospects. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver wrote a long piece on this in last weekend's New York Times Magazine, titled "Is Obama Toast?" Silver also put together an interactive that calculates each GOP candidate's chances of beating President Obama based on different levels of GDP growth.

Silver notes that presidents have historically lost their reelection campaigns when economic growth is low. But he points out the exceptions, too: Eisenhower won despite 1.8% growth, GW Bush won with only 2.4% growth, and Humphrey lost with 5% growth. Silver calls out political scientists for relying on very specific variables to explain these exceptions and predict future elections:

Some political scientists have tried to explain these exceptions by resorting to an alphabet soup of economic indicators, conjuring obscure variables like R.D.P.I.P.C. (real disposable-personal-income per capita), which they claim can predict elections with remarkable accuracy. From the standpoint of responsible forecasting, this is a mistake. The government tracks literally 39,000 economic indicators each year.

Silver explains that some economic indicators predict elections "by chance alone," while "indicators like the unemployment rate have historically had almost no correlation with election results despite their self-evident importance." GDP, he argues, is the best indicator to look at because it measures overall economic activity.

The Obama campaign isn't fan on Silver's calculations. In today's fundraising email titled "Obama is toast?" campaign manager Jim Messina rejects the idea of using "a mathematical formula to conclude who will win this race." Messina praises the grassroots organization that Obama 2012 is building in all 50 states, and says that will help the president beat Silver's "formula." "So, is Obama toast? It's up to you," Messina concludes.

Economic Policy

Economic Report of the President and Bureau of Economic Analysis-- one-stop shopping for many of your data needs...

Goals of Economic Policy

Growth

• Real GDP
• Real GDP per capita

Employment and Unemployment

• Current Population Survey
• Unemployment
• Alternative Measures
• Unionization

A case study of unemployment (h/t Prof. Lynch):

Stable Prices

• Price data
• Deflators

Balance of Payments

• Current Data on International Transactions
• Historical Data on International Transactions

Monetary Policy

Open Market Operations

Herman Cain and the Peter Principle

Jennifer Rubin writes at The Washington Post:

The Post has a must-read piece about Herman Cain’s tenure at the National Restaurant Association. Quite apart from any sexual harassment troubles, it seems that he was not good at his job...

The implication is that this is reflective of his personal shortcomings as an executive: “His problems at the restaurant association mirror those that have plagued his campaign. A talented orator, Cain has inspired a level of enthusiasm in conservative voters that his rivals can only envy. But he has struggled to maintain an organized campaign, with staff members in key states quitting out of frustration.”

This is entirely at odds, of course, with Cain’s message that he is a problem solver and uber-competent executive. It also poses a legitimate question as to how he was so successful at Godfather’s Pizza and so bad at running organizations (NRA, his campaign) after that.

It’s very possible we have the Peter Principle at work here. It’s one thing to sell pizza and quite another to be a public figure managing competing constituencies, receiving barbed criticism, and being pressed to deliver more than one-liners and good cheer. It’s also possible he simply knew who to hire and had better help in the pizza business.

Confidence? I Don't Know About That...

Scott Adams is not kidding about the research. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes:

We often interact with professionals who exercise their judgment with evident confidence, sometimes priding themselves on the power of their intuition. In a world rife with illusions of validity and skill, can we trust them? How do we distinguish the justified confidence of experts from the sincere overconfidence of professionals who do not know they are out of their depth? We can believe an expert who admits uncertainty but cannot take expressions of high confidence at face value. As I first learned on the obstacle field, people come up with coherent stories and confident predictions even when they know little or nothing. Overconfidence arises because people are often blind to their own blindness.

Information Infarction

Intersection of Politics and Policy

This Washington Post article details how Obama creates economic policy through small executive orders. Obama's initiatives demonstrate how the Executive Branch can play a strong role in policy making outside of Cabinet departments. The author cites as examples: "mortgage relief for homeowners Monday, tax credits to spur job growth for veterans Tuesday, college loan relief for students Wednesday, regulatory and information shortcuts for small businesses Friday." In addition, the author references the State of the Union address. Often, Presidents can dictate policy through this address because of the public nature of it. The general direction of public policy can often rest upon the ideas the President gives during the address.

The article spends significant time on the influence these initiatives will have on Obama's reelection campaign. Though these executive orders can be issued at any time, the timing of Obama's executive orders mirror Clinton's actions before his successful reelection campaign. Upcoming elections provide incentive for Presidents to take greater and more direct action on issues that have high public awareness.

Air Midterm

Relax. This “air midterm” does not count toward your grade; do not even turn it in. Instead, use it to appraise your own progress in the course. Try out this test, either in your head or on paper.If you flounder, then you should take more care with class sessions and assigned readings.

I. Identifications. Explain the meaning and significance of the following items. What is fair game for an identification?

• Items that we have discussed in class or on the blog;
• Items that appear in bold or italics in the readings;
• Items that cover several pages in the readings.

1. Compstat
2. Subgovernments
3. The Peter Principle
4. Federal Register
5. Surgeon General
6. "The overhang'
7. Infant safe havens
8. "Internalities"
9. Federal advisory committees
10. FTC
11. Sensitivity analysis
12. Choice architecture

II. Short answers. Each reply should take a brief paragraph.

1. Describe the difference between "outputs" and "outcomes," with concrete examples.
2. "Defense spending has skyrocketed over the past 25 years!" "Defense spending is consuming far less of our resources than it did 25 years ago!" How can both statements be true?
3. Briefly describe Bardach's "eightfold path."

III. General Essays

1. Do all issues go through the issue-attention cycle? Explain.
2. "Policy causes politics," says Peters. Explain.
3. Why do Fritschler and Rudder take a positive view of the bureaucracy's discretionary authority? How would a critic respond?

IV. Bonus questions (one point each) Very briefly identify the following:

Joseph Califano

Joycelyn Elders

Michael Cudney

Abner Mikva

John Banzhaf

The 9-9-9 Plan

From the Washington Post blogger Erza Klein : "One problem with trying to graph the 9-9-9 plan is that the tax cuts for the rich are so large that it’s hard to see what the policy is doing to the poor and the middle class. That’s why I posted a table rather than a chart earlier. But the folks at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities came up with a solution: make the graph really, really, really big. Their visualization is below the fold :"

Reinvention, Networks, and Markets

Reform

• Reinvented Government, operating more like a business, with performance measures
• Government by Network, contracting out the work.
• Government by Market, creating a market driver to change the behavior of a large group or people, e.g. putting a bounty on cans and bottles.

More on reinvented government

• Productivity
• Service delivery
• Performance measurement
• Regulatory reform
• Innovation

Reinvention video here and here.

Compstat:

Tulsa Police Department 2009 COMPSTAT Introduction from James Plumlee Photography on Vimeo.

But Compstat is not all rosy:

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Oral Presentations

We shall soon begin oral presentations in class. In each oral presentation, a student will speak for no more than five minutes, and then take questions for another five.

In your presentation, you should make a specific policy recommendation to the government official who has the most authority to deal with this issue.

Your recommendation may deal with any domestic issue at any level of American government. It should involve a subject on which there is real debate. It should be significant, yet manageable enough to analyze in a five-minute presentation. (That is, you will probably not be able to offer a comprehensive solution to the federal debt problem.)

It should also concern a topic that you care about, yet can discuss in a professional manner.

Use data to define the problem. You may present tables or graphs in a blog post, to which you may refer during your presentation.

Read these useful guidelines for oral presentations: http://www.auburn.edu/~burnsma/oralpres.html

Watch this video: